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Thursday, August 21, 2008
     
Happy New Year for 2008
Location: BlogsPricedOut    
Posted by: PricedOut Mon, 31 Dec 2007 20:16:46 GMT

OK, here we go, and the main event has to be the prediction of average house prices over 2008.  My opinion is that talk of a crash will continue in the media during the first quarter, and that average house prices will fall by 5% in the first half of 2008.  People will take their summer holidays, and then average house prices will begin to rise in the third quarter.  The media will pick up on this and instead of shouting about a crash, they will begin shouting about a boom (common factor = they always shout about something).  In the second half of 2008, I predict that average house prices will rise by 5% to end the year at the same level as they began it.

You notice the use of the word "average" throughout?  This is where statistics can bite you.  Maybe house prices in Kensington and in Stroud will move in opposite directions by different amounts, so it will depend on where you have set your heart to buy, on what 2008 will look like.  If your chosen location follows my prediction (and that is a pretty big "if"), and if your salary rises in line with inflation, then you could be better off saving for a bigger deposit, than rushing in just because the Estate Agents (or their lackeys) say "there has never been a better time to buy".

What else?  A few minor changes to the Law, perhaps.  Housing still largely unnaffordable, with a long way to go.  Building resources begin to be diverted towards Olympic projects.  Economic sentiment still negative, regardless of actual underlying strength.

So, in summary, a possible breather in house price inflation, but much still to do - there is no room for complacency - put it out of your mind for now and enjoy the New Year celebrations - and remember PricedOut when you are making your new year's resolutions - cheers!

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