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PricedOut Discussion
Subject: You're going about this the wrong way
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will


First Timer
First Timer
Posts:7


27/05/2007 6:24 AM Alert 
Why? Because you are nibbling at the edges - more homes (won't happen and have an effect for at least a year to a year and a half), better government schemes (just props up the whole edifice) and restrictions on mortgages (a blunt tool and very inefficient because it captures people who might have a genuine need).

So what should be done? The answer is that an organisation such as Priced Out should act as a trade union for first time buyers. Just as trade unions withdraw their labour, so could first time buyers. Organise enough people, explain to them the benefits of staying out of the market, if we all do, and watch prices fall as the base of the pyramid refuses to prop up the rest.

The whole market has gone too far for any correction in prices to be painless, so the best thing to do is bring on the pain as soon as possible, so as few people as possible are affected.
REI


Activist
Activist
Posts:413


27/05/2007 8:49 AM Alert 
How would people "stay out of the market"?
will


First Timer
First Timer
Posts:7


27/05/2007 10:10 AM Alert 
not buy? people tend to buy homes for themselves or their spouses but if all first time buyers held back and rented (with others, in larger houses) for another six months, what would that do to the price of one bed flats/houses? once the slide starts, it is likely to be self reinforcing, and once the slide has started, no one would want to get into the market anway
Magneto


Activist
Activist
Posts:350


28/05/2007 1:39 AM Alert 
People can also live with their parents.

People can also leave the market by going abroard.
REI


Activist
Activist
Posts:413


29/05/2007 2:03 AM Alert 
Posted By will on 05/27/2007 10:10 AM
not buy? people tend to buy homes for themselves or their spouses but if all first time buyers held back and rented (with others, in larger houses) for another six months, what would that do to the price of one bed flats/houses? once the slide starts, it is likely to be self reinforcing, and once the slide has started, no one would want to get into the market anyway


Maybe.

FTB have been buying less and less and the market has not responded to the cut back. The same people who are not buying do need to live somewhere. Hence they become renters for the most part. The investors buy what the FTB do not buy and then rent it to the FTB who choose to wait it out.

Some renters rent because they want to rent (many good reasons independent of cost.

Human nature says that people will not pull out of the market for the greater good. They will dive back in when they get a chance. They will stay out if they can not afford to buy or if prices are falling. People will continue to stay out if they are scared of the market (prices have fallen, economy not so good, etc).
will


First Timer
First Timer
Posts:7


29/05/2007 3:05 AM Alert 
which is why you need a trade union of sorts. The same argument against applies to workers, who would give up a days work when others will go on strike and get you a pay rise?

Won't happen overnight but.....
REI


Activist
Activist
Posts:413


29/05/2007 3:27 AM Alert 
A housing union of sorts. I guess the union would have to be able to show the benefits to get people to join. Trade unions can use collective bargaining over wages. House prices would be slow to move so people might not sign up. Long strikes tend to fail if the workers are suffering. That would happen with a housing union if prices did not move for a long while.

There is a possible alternative that could be better. A co-op or group estate where the project is subsidized. The future gains from appreciation are not passed on to the owners as the new owners get to buy in at the reduced price. Or there is a gradual rise so that the prices do not get locked at too low of a price. A few exist in London. I forget the actual label or name for the schemes.
midway


First Timer
First Timer
Posts:0


29/05/2007 4:16 AM Alert 
If something is subsidized it means someone else is bearing part of the true cost. Who exactly would be providing the subsidy?
Magneto


Activist
Activist
Posts:350


29/05/2007 6:31 AM Alert 
"If something is subsidized it means someone else is bearing part of the true cost. Who exactly would be providing the subsidy?"

It seems to not matter as long as house prices are maintained at their high level.
REI


Activist
Activist
Posts:413


29/05/2007 10:57 AM Alert 
Posted By midway on 05/29/2007 4:16 AM
If something is subsidized it means someone else is bearing part of the true cost. Who exactly would be providing the subsidy?


Very good question. Any program to lower costs either has to remove demand to dampen prices or someone else has to subsidize the costs.

In many new build projects in London housing is set aside for various social groups. The cost of the housing being turned over to the social organization is largely covered by the remainder of the people who purchase the units are market prices.

The other alternative is to use taxes collected from the masses to benefit specific groups. It can be the right thing to do in many cases (council housing when people have a true need).
Magneto


Activist
Activist
Posts:350


29/05/2007 11:38 PM Alert 
Tax subsidies only prop up the market by artificially supporting Landlords despite market forces. It is a means to maintian the status quo for those with a vested interest in keeping house prices high

Social housing for the needy should be done in any case.


Magrathea


Activist
Activist
Posts:435


31/05/2007 2:20 PM Alert 
"Very good question. Any program to lower costs either has to remove demand to dampen prices or someone else has to subsidize the costs."

You can remove demand by making the real estate market uninteresting to speculators. You can do that by placing sufficient tax on the locational aspect of the value of real estate.

Here is why it works:

To a potential user (non speculator) real estate of is interest because it has the potential to allow him to create wealth and so he compares the total price (including any taxes he may have to pay) with what he thinks he can make out of his pressence in the property (wages / utility) And so the presence of taxes upon the property make no odds to him, because, if there are taxes, the amount he will bid for the house will simply be reduced by the sum total of taxes - and this is true for everyone else ..and so bids for that house will be reduced by the total of taxation. In other words, the exchange price will drop and the remainder of the 'house price' will be paid by him in taxes. Notice that costs for him have not risen, even though taxes have been collected. If the taxes were taken away from the scenario he would be paying the same amount for possession, but would be paying a larger portion of interest on his loan rather than taxation. Now we come to a speculator - For him this situation is intolerable; he is not interested in using the property itself, but rather in collecting the rise in price of the location. If any taxes will remove from him all or the greater portion of this rising price, then he simply will not be interested and will leave the property to be bought by someone who wishes to use it to create new wealth with it. Speculators will, therefore leave the market to people who wish to use real estate and real estate prices will fall due to reduced demand if taxes are leveraged correctly upon real estate.


REI


Activist
Activist
Posts:413


31/05/2007 2:29 PM Alert 
Magrathea,

Lets run with your tax idea. Assume the necessary laws were put in place to target speculators as you describe.

If the speculators find that there is no profit in buying they will invest somewhere else.

What property is the speculator buying? If that property was not purchased by the speculator who would step in?

As we are talking about speculators I am assuming that we mean people who are in for the short term. Many landlords are long term investors so largely fall outside the speculator label. If we believe that speculators are the ones buying off-plan so they can sell before completion then we will see a decrease in demand for new build property. Maybe the reduction will trigger a reduction in prices but supply will stay the same. Or maybe the builders will build less to match the demand. I would still expect a bit of a price reduction but not a dramatic reduction if supply is cut back. Some projects will not make sense at lower price levels until the land prices and other costs drop.
Magneto


Activist
Activist
Posts:350


31/05/2007 2:33 PM Alert 
Homes should not be for investment speculation. They are homes. Let 'investors' play in the stock market with the other children.
REI


Activist
Activist
Posts:413


31/05/2007 2:47 PM Alert 
Posted By Magneto on 05/31/2007 2:33 PM
Homes should not be for investment speculation. They are homes. Let 'investors' play in the stock market with the other children.


You will no support from the folks who dominate the market (the owners) with comments like the above. As they are in the majority loosing their support will doom any real effort to make a difference. They happen to vote more consistently so an even bigger reason not to needlessly call them children.
Magneto


Activist
Activist
Posts:350


31/05/2007 3:20 PM Alert 
"You will no support from the folks who dominate the market (the owners) with comments like the above. As they are in the majority loosing their support will doom any real effort to make a difference. They happen to vote more consistently so an even bigger reason not to needlessly call them children."

BTL speculators are the problem not home owners. The genuine ones who want a home are those who should have them. They will realise that their children are doomed in time.
Magrathea


Activist
Activist
Posts:435


31/05/2007 4:09 PM Alert 

“Lets run with your tax idea. Assume the necessary laws were put in place to target speculators as you describe.

If the speculators find that there is no profit in buying they will invest somewhere else.“

 

Excellent. Perhaps he could start a business, perhaps employing people to create wealth.

“What property is the speculator buying? If that property was not purchased by the speculator who would step in? “

 

A user - that is somebody whose intention is to use the property to create wealth. Do you see how this links to my previous comment? Already we see how a potential speculator is now encouraged to abandon speculation as a business and instead set up some kind of production, perhaps even at the site he would have previously vacuously used merely for its rising price. Instead of buying this property, then perhaps looking for another to buy, he may only make the purchase of this site profitable for himself by using the site in some way to produce after he gains it. As a speculator he is out of the market, but he may still wish to invest in production, and that is one of the keys. Let me make this clear, one of the advantages of this tax is that all the money that is presently being ‘invested’ to do little but make life harder for people by bidding up real estate prices, will instead be used to employ people and create wealth. The free ride ends though.

 


“As we are talking about speculators I am assuming that we mean people who are in for the short term. Many landlords are long term investors so largely fall outside the speculator label.”

 

There is no need to label speculators with any legal definition; the taxes would simply take away the speculative profits from the location-al aspect of real estate.

 

Funny you should attempt an exception for long term speculators, as they tend to be the largest and most destructive speculations
 

“ If we believe that speculators are the ones buying off-plan so they can sell before completion then we will see a decrease in demand for new build property.”
 

No, rather there would be a dramatically increased incentive to create new houses

Presently, the house price boom values pass into the market for available land to build new houses and locks up the supply of land by encouraging speculation and hoarding in the available land. This pushes increased costs to house-makers who may or may not recoup these costs..at best, it becomes far more risky than it need be. Using the tax, with a metaphorical stroke land speculators are taken out of the market for available land and the price drops and house building becomes less costly. The constructors of houses are not particularly the beneficiaries of housing booms, because the extra ‘profit’ you think they might receive for actually building houses becomes extra costs in production for them. This is one of the principle reasons why housing booms are not properly reflected by increases in housing supply; the underlying necessary supply; the supply of land is absolutely fixed and cannot be produced. And so the benefits of housing booms, no matter what anyone produces or does, go in their entirety to those holding the only thing that cannot be produced; land.
 

“Maybe the reduction will trigger a reduction in prices but supply will stay the same.

Or maybe the builders will build less to match the demand. I would still expect a bit of a price reduction but not a dramatic reduction if supply is cut back.”
 

This is because you aren’t factoring in the fixed nature of the supply of land. You are using a production model, but land isn’t produced and so increased demand does not increase supply, as in production, it rather encourages hoarding.
 

“Some projects will not make sense at lower price levels until the land prices and other costs drop.”

Every project whose selling price is reduced finds that its productions costs are also more than commensurately reduced…which translates into increased incentive.

REI


Activist
Activist
Posts:413


01/06/2007 3:06 AM Alert 
Magrathea,

I am not convinced. Maybe I am just slow.

How does a speculator gain? When they buy are they buying raw land or are they buying a property that is used productively while they own the property? You seem to include landlords. As the properties are rented generally why are you calling this speculation?

Lets shift to a different market for a minute. People who have more cash than they need store it in the bank and they receive rent for that money. They allow the bank to use the funds and the bank pays rent for the money.

If a landlord owns a property which they rent out how is that speculation? The tenant gets a home to live in. Assuming there is am ample supply of rental homes then the tenant choose the specific one they rent so they are exercising their right to choose where they live. The landlord make a return from holding the asset and from the income. Similar to a factory that makes a widget. At the end of the business the asset is sold off similar to a company closing and selling off its factory/land.

Do you see short term investors who are buying with no expectation of income in the same way as a long term landlord who expects to have a positive yield on the investment (income greater than expenses)?

The US has a two tier form of tax for property owned by an investor. If the property is inventory to be purchase and then sold it is taxes at the ordinary tax rate. If the property is held for investment (think property held to produce an income) then the property can be taxed at a reduced rate after the investor has held long term. Long term is not that long as it means that the property was held as an income producing property for 12+ months.

You could say that the US is taxing the short term speculator more than the long term investor.
Magrathea


Activist
Activist
Posts:435


01/06/2007 12:27 PM Alert 

"Magrathea,

 

I am not convinced. Maybe I am just slow.

 

How does a speculator gain? When they buy are they buying raw land or are they buying a property that is used productively while they own the property? You seem to include landlords. As the properties are rented generally why are you calling this speculation?"

 

I'm not calling it speculation - erm, isn't this the second time I have said this?

 

Landlords can be called anything you want to call them; the precise definition of a real estate speculator is irrelevant. To clarify, there will be no (or very little) profit in simply and only holding a piece of real estate; that fact directly impacts real estate speculation and makes it pointless.

 

 

"Lets shift to a different market for a minute. People who have more cash than they need store it in the bank and they receive rent for that money. They allow the bank to use the funds and the bank pays rent for the money."

 

Yep

 

Are you asking how this market is morally different from real estate?

 

The bank notes do not form any restriction or exclusion upon third parties, real estate does.

 

Incidentally, you will find that the real value of your pile of notes sitting in a bank vault will reduce slowly over time despite the interest paid. There is a very good reason for this; it is to discourage the mere hoarding of bank notes. A similar effect would be gained in terms of real estate, if buildings (sites) were to slowly devalue as they got older. It is the rising price of the spatial exclusion that makes houses not do this and means they are a focus for a particular kind of useless and destructive economic behaviour.

 

"If a landlord owns a property which they rent out how is that speculation?"

 

I'm having to think hard to make a guess at what you are driving at. A landlord who rents out a property is not necessarily engaging in speculation in those acts, however to argue that from that that landlords do not speculate in property values, is nonsense. I can perhaps clarify this by adding that with this tax, whatever the landlord's intentions when he bought the real estate, he will not make money simply and only out of the existential fact that he holds it.

 

 

"The tenant gets a home to live in."

 

The tenant is sold two things, which have separate economic natures and explanations

 

1. The tenant is sold access to a physical construction we call a house; this was added to the world with human effort and so if the tenant wishes to access this he must pay down through the chain of holders, and compensate the people who made the effort to add this house object - otherwise nobody will make houses. In this particular respect, landlordery is precisely like any other goods or services provision; services (houses) are created using human labour and then bought off the creator.

 

2. The tenant is sold access to the location / land, which was not created with human effort.

 

 

Because the existence of the location itself is not the result of any human effort, there is consequently no economic need to compensate the landlord or anyone else for the value of the location, because neither he, nor anyone else, ever actually ever provided the location. In fact, compensating the landlord for the existence of the location is intrinsically unjust because it allows him to sell, to another, something that can only be sold to someone if it were originally taken, in some manor, from them.

 

Let me put this another way - The landlord is economically responsible for the existence of the house, and so is rightly and justly paid for it's use, but he is not responsible for the existence or value of the location and so payments made to him for the value of the location itself are not paying him for any value he is actually responsible for. Paying people for the existence of locations is a little like paying people for the existence of the sun, it is intrinsically unjust.

 

One of the effects of the tax is to remove from the landlord the portion of rent charges he is making for the existence of the location itself. This done, he is left purely with the charges he makes for the services he actually provides (the physical house)

 

"Assuming there is am ample supply of rental homes then the tenant choose the specific one they rent so they are exercising their right to choose where they live."

 

This is only partially true, because his choice and bargaining position is moderated by the fact that he has no intrinsic right to be anywhere at all. He had that natural right stripped off him, using force, when land was enclosed.

 

"The landlord make a return from holding the asset and from the income. Similar to a factory that makes a widget. At the end of the business the asset is sold off similar to a company closing and selling off its factory/land."

 

 

As I pointed out, here are some similarities, but vast, wobbling and pertinent differences.

REI


Activist
Activist
Posts:413


03/06/2007 7:09 AM Alert 
Magrathea,

In a different thread I noted that I now understand your position on a land tax so I will not add comments here concerning land taxes or a location's value.

On a different matter that you mentioned first here I am interested in a clarification.

Your wrote: "Incidentally, you will find that the real value of your pile of notes sitting in a bank vault will reduce slowly over time despite the interest paid. There is a very good reason for this; it is to discourage the mere hoarding of bank notes."

Are you speaking about inflation? Are you saying that inflation is a a tool or a method used to discourage people from hoarding bank notes? If you are not talking about inflation what is the correct term?

You are not authorized to post a reply.
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